In Iraq, a new breed of returning exile

What are we going to do? Turkey is in NATO and hates the Kurds, yet the Kurds have been our most consistent ally in Iraq.

After the U.S. invasion in 2003, Kurds who had been expelled by Hussein and replaced by Arab families returned by the thousands, hoping to reclaim their lost homes. Disputes over land rights are common, and many are still homeless. Soldiers from all three ethnic groups help keep the peace — and sometimes end up in tense standoffs themselves.


Over it all hangs the central question: Should Kirkuk remain part of Iraq proper or be governed by the semiautonomous region of Kurdistan to its north? Plans for a census to determine who lives in Kirkuk and a referendum to decide its governance, promised by the Iraqi constitution, have stalled.

See previous posts:

Support the Kurds

Tensions stoked between Iraqi Kurds and Sunnis

A Turning Point?

Division in Iraqi Kurdistan

But Kurdistanis between the ages of 15 and 30 -- approximately 40% of the population -- grew up in an already semi-autonomous Kurdistan. Most of them only heard about the struggle against the former regime from their parents and grandparents.

They did, however, witness the armed struggle for power between the KDP and the PUK from 1994 to 1997, and have lived under two-party rule that dominates political representation, resource management and access to employment. They have little or no contact with the rest of Iraq, attend Kurdish universities, speak Kurdish better than Arabic -- and hold Irbil politically accountable before Baghdad.

In the eyes of this youth, the KDP and PUK have spent the past 20 years prioritizing parochial interests over the national good.

Until the protests started, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) ministries remained split between the two parties -- with no access for others -- and little collaboration has existed between them. Peshmerga forces, long the symbol of national resistance to Hussein's regime, are also divided into two uncooperative branches, one loyal to the KDP and the other to the PUK.

Furthermore, although Kurdistan enjoys better security than the rest of Iraq and has seen investments pour in since 2003, between 35% and 45% of Kurdish youth remain unemployed or underemployed. Political affiliation often regulates advancement.

U.S. troops may be sent to Iraq's Arab-Kurdish 'trigger line'

This is one conflict we do not want to get involved in, especially if our involvement "won't be full-on if we do it. It will just be to build confidence, then we will slowly pull ourselves out," according to GEN Odierno. The Kurds love us, but their opinion of us could quickly change if we are seen as protecting outsider Sunnis in what they view as their historic homeland (see Arab-Israeli conflict) or keep allowing our NATO "ally" Turkey to hunt for PKK Kurds in Northern Iraq. We could end up leaving Iraq with the Shiites (Arab and Persian), Sunnis, Kurds, and Turks, all hating us. Don't screw this one up, GEN Odierno.

Combat Troops on Pace to Leave Iraqi Cities - Even Violent Mosul to Be Relinquished by June 30 Deadline, U.S. Commander Says

I love how Mosul is so violent now... a direct result of less and less troops being used in the area. Somehow when there was a brigade in Tal-Afar and a brigade in Mosul, things were better in Northern Iraq...

Tensions Stoked Between Iraqi Kurds and Sunnis

There is no surprise here. As predicted, Northern Iraq is falling apart despite the great work Hannibal, Murdock, and B.A. Baracus, did up there in 2005-2006. Although it was recently viewed as a pleasant, up and coming area with a diverse population and a Whole Foods and Starbucks in every town, it is far from it.

American officials have long feared a military conflict in the north, where Arabs and Kurds have competing claims to territory and have legions of trained men under arms. The struggle for power has also fueled the insurgency in the north, giving groups like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia an opening to appear to back an Arab cause. And it comes as American combat troops are scheduled to withdraw from Iraqi cities by the end of June.

I have argued that this is mostly due to troop level drawdowns in the area. Anyhow, here is what I wrote on September 17, 2008:
U.S. Soldiers battling hard in Iraqi city