Obama must decide whether to talk to the Taliban

Neighboring countries and most Afghans believe that the endgame has begun for a post-U.S. Afghanistan. There are just 14 months for the U.S. military surge to show results while Washington simultaneously prepares to begin its July 2011 troop withdrawal and handover to the Afghan government. Already, efforts to jockey for future control of Afghanistan have been seen among Pakistan, India, Iran and even Russia. Several NATO countries eager to withdraw forces are frustrated. It is clear in the region that someone will have to mediate with the Taliban, but in the absence of U.S. leadership, a tug of war is taking place over who will do it, when, how and where.

Obama Narrows the Range of Possible Targets in New National Nuclear-Weapons Policy

Pakistan's War of Choice

Although Pakistan is stepping up its efforts, this article alludes to the main reason they refuse to commit fully.

Pakistan seems unwilling to move much more of its army away from the Indian border, meaning a further delay before operations commence in North Waziristan — home to the Haqqani network, a radical group headed by the Taliban commander Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, which is believed to be behind some of the largest attacks in recent years.

I did not meet any Pakistanis who actually seemed to wish to see the Afghan Taliban back in power. But the country simply does not have the military capacity to make major moves against the Afghan fundamentalists. And, less understandably, Pakistanis tend to see Indian conspiracies behind what is happening in Afghanistan, and fear being trapped between their longtime nemesis on one side and an Indian puppet on the other.

At the headquarters of the Pakistani spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, I was told that India was suspected of providing explosives to Tehrik-i-Taliban extremists through Afghanistan. Many Pakistanis claim that the Afghan government of Hamid Karzai is essentially a reincarnation of the old Northern Alliance from the Afghan civil war — a union largely made up of ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks and partly financed by India. (This despite the fact that Afghanistan’s ministers of defense and interior are Pashtun, as is President Karzai.)Pakistanis wonder why India is building so many consulates in Afghanistan, and even Indian-subsidized health clinics are considered suspicious.

India

For a great post on the geography of India, check out the piece entitled "The Mystery That is India" from August 29, 2009, on The Scholar's Stage.

India Befriends Afghanistan, Irking Pakistan

This is exactly what we, the U.S., need to happen in Afghanistan! India and Pakistan fighting over who is the better friend of Afghanistan! Perhaps now Pakistan will focus harder on their border with Afghanistan rather than fighting the Indians in Kashmir?! Perhaps India and Pakistan will become friends like Sean Thornton and Will Danaher did in The Quiet Man? Doubtful...

Anyhow here is an excerpt from the article:

The two countries have sparred repeatedly about each other's activities in Afghanistan. Indian officials say their Pakistani counterparts have claimed that there are more than the official four Indian consulates in Afghanistan, and that they support an extensive Indian spy network. For years, Pakistan refused to allow overland shipment of fortified wheat biscuits from India to feed two million Afghan schoolchildren. India instead had to ship the biscuits through Iran, driving up costs for the program.

The World Food Program, which administers the shipments, said the Pakistan government gave its approval for overland shipment in 2008 -- six years after the first delivery from India. "Why did it take six years ... is something that WFP cannot answer," a spokesman for the aid organization said. "However, we are indeed thankful to the government of Pakistan for allowing transit for the fortified biscuits."

Also, here are some old posts on the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship that help explain my opinions regarding the region:

A Man, A Plan, Afghanistan - September 12, 2008

Afghanistan Is in Its Worst Shape since 2001 - September 16, 2008

Pakistan Picks New Chief for Intelligence Agency - September 30, 2008

Confronting Taliban, Pakistan Finds Itself at War - October 3, 2008

Pakistan's Military - May 15, 2009

Pakistan Objects to U.S. Plan for Afghan War - July 22, 2009

Obama Facing Rising Anxiety on Afghanistan

Good job, Mr. Attackerman.


See also:
McChrystal Considers Abandoning Remote U.S. Troop Outposts

Again, as stated countless times on here, Pakistan's military doesn't really care about fighting the Taliban, especially when they view us as temporary allies. They want to fight the 300,000 Indian troops garrisoned in Kashmir.

Pakistan Objects to U.S. Plan for Afghan War

Pakistan just wants more money or weapons from the U.S. They also do not want the U.S. to really win, since we are always on the fence with regards to India. I've said this a million times already on this blog, but this "little war" on their border with Afghanistan is not what they consider their main battle... their frontline. Here is a quote reiterating what I have been saying for quite some time:

A Taliban spillover would require Pakistan to put more troops there, a Pakistani intelligence official said, troops the country does not have now. Diverting troops from the border with India is out of the question, the official said.

In Search Of Success

For several months, the Obama Administration has been rethinking American policy, hoping to depart from this history of dysfunction. It has announced a formal strategy: an adaptive counterinsurgency doctrine that seeks to emphasize the security and the prosperity of the Afghan and Pakistani people above all; economic and development aid; vigorous diplomacy; and carefully targeted warfare, particularly aimed at Al Qaeda. Already, however, Obama and his advisers have had to confront the puzzle of which policies in their new portfolio will promote stability in the region, and which will promote instability...“A key aspect to the new strategy is to put more attention and resources toward Pakistan’s economic and governance challenges,” Richard Holbrooke, Obama’s special envoy to the region, told Congress last week. Yet Pakistan’s prideful insistence on its sovereignty means, among other things, that the United States cannot provide relief directly to internally displaced civilians. Their fate will now depend on Pakistan’s fragile and unpopular government, with support from charities and the United Nations; the Obama Administration must stand in the rear, urgently working its bellows.

Pakistan Is Rapidly Adding Nuclear Arms, U.S. Says

One more example of how Pakistan views its border with Afghanistan as less of a problem than its border with India.

But the billions in new proposed American aid, officials acknowledge, could free other money for Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure, at a time when Pakistani officials have expressed concern that their nuclear program is facing a budget crunch for the first time, worsened by the global economic downturn. The program employs tens of thousands of Pakistanis, including about 2,000 believed to possess “critical knowledge” about how to produce a weapon.

China fears India-Japan space alliance

One more interesting take on U.S. grand strategy with regards to Asia. Very soon we will see what the Obama administration will do.

"China is concerned about the general effort of the US during the Bush Administration to form a Japanese-Indian alliance to contain China," said Dr Gregory Kulacki, senior analyst and China project manager at the Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists.

"They are more concerned about what this implies about US intentions rather than what it implies about the intentions of the Japanese or the Indians, particularly as it concerns space."

Pakistan Picks New Chief for Intelligence Agency

LTG Ahmed Shuja Pasha

It appears that GEN Ashfaq Kayani is consolidating his power over the very important Pakistani Army Officer Corps by replacing LTG Nadeem Taj, who was appointed to head the ISI by former Army Chief and President Pervez Musharraf, with LTG Ahmed Shuja Pasha. This goes along with "a host of other major personnel changes, most important of which is the appointment of Lt. Gen. Tahir Mehmood as corps commander in Rawalpindi — the second most critical position, behind chief of army staff, for any coup," according to The Pakistan Policy Blog

Although the article from The Washington Post hints that this is probably the result of a strategy review of Pakistani operations in areas bordering Afghanistan including the North-West Frontier Province, I think it is just GEN Kayani consolidating his power over the Army by getting rid of Musharraf appointees and getting ready to implement a new strategy. Hopefully, this strategy will be to the benefit of the U.S., but, frankly, the Pakistanis must be asking themselves, "What has the U.S. done for me lately?" This is especially true given the recent U.S. support of a nuclear pact with Pakistan's mortal enemy, India (see Nuclear Pact With India Gets Approval of House). This further illustrates how important it is for the U.S. to give Pakistan security guarantees that we will not withdraw from Afghanistan prematurely leaving Pakistan, and the ISI who deals with the Taliban on a daily basis, with a, to use a Rep. Boehner coined term, "mud sandwich." As I have advocated on this blog previously, a top priority for the U.S. should be to normalize relations between four of our current or potential allies: the Kurds and the Turks as well as the Pakistanis and the Indians. Right now, both Pakistan and India do not trust us, and with our track record, I don't blame them.

India Set to Lose Voice of America

"It's a mystery why they want to shut Hindi radio. India is the largest democracy and has the second-largest Muslim population in the world," said Tim Shamble, president of American Federation of Government Employees Local 1812, the union that represents broadcasters and journalists at VOA. "The region has two nuclear powers and several hot spots."
Shamble said shortwave radio should continue because it is an effective way of reaching conflict spots where the Internet and satellite TV can be blocked by hostile governments. He said his opposition is not about job loss but the erosion of a powerful tool of public diplomacy.

Pakistan Without Musharraf

Good points made in this editorial. Here is an excerpt:

Pakistan needs to send its most elite troops into the troubled frontier areas bordering Afghanistan. It needs to spend its military dollars — many of which are provided by Washington — on counterinsurgency weapons, not F-16 fighter jets bought to challenge India. The United States must condition future military aid on more focused and effective Pakistani counterinsurgency efforts and carefully monitor how that aid is spent.

Wasteful military spending and political corruption has diverted millions of dollars that should have been invested in primary education, health care and agriculture. Pakistani allies like Saudi Arabia should also help pay for schools, health services and agricultural development and carefully monitor how their aid is spent.

Pakistan, like the U.S., suffers from "wasteful military spending and political corruption" that "has diverted millions of dollars that should have been invested in primary education [and] healthcare."