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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Afghanistan Is in Its Worst Shape Since 2001, European Diplomat Says


From The New York Times:
One of the most experienced Western envoys in Afghanistan said Sunday that conditions there had become the worst since 2001. He urged a concerted American and foreign response, even before a new American administration took office, to avoid “a very hot winter for all of us.”

Mr. Vendrell said that nevertheless it was time not to abandon Afghanistan but to redouble efforts there, both military efforts and those to build up civilian institutions and ensure that elections are held next year. In particular, he said, the United States must develop clear standards to govern the detention of hundreds of Afghans it holds without trial.

“This is not the time to leave; we are not destined to fail, but we are far from succeeding,” he concluded.

How exactly is GEN Petraeus going to fix Afghanistan? It is a trick question. Petraeus' tactical warfighting days are now over... implementing an effective counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan falls to NATO/ISAF commander, GEN David McKiernan. Petraeus can only help influence the efforts of the commanders in theater. Since he is now exclusively at the strategic level, GEN Petraeus must focus on the big picture.

First, he must focus on the destruction of the jihadist logistics supply chain across CENTCOM's area of responsibility. This chain includes the drug trade and the money from it that goes towards purchasing weapons in addition to the movement of fighters to the conflict areas. He needs to follow the money. Disruption requires a tweak of the human intelligence targeting system at the strategic level by issuing guidance refocusing tactical units' priority intelligence requirements from the whereabouts of terrorist leaders to the whereabouts of the movers and shakers (e.g. Taliban members who speak Russian, Farsi, Arabic, French, or Chinese, and Iraqis that speak Farsi, Pashto, Russian, French, or Chinese - all of whom undoubtedly play a role as messengers or in securing weapons - yet seem to be low level jihadists, well-educated engineers who undoubtedly help teach the popular "IED Construction 101" at Helmand Community College or Alī ibn Abī Ṭālib University of Najaf - now with an extension center in Sadr City!). Killing or capturing the movers and shakers will disturb the links the Taliban needs to sustain itself and help erode the power of its well known leaders. The Taliban's strength, its ability to operate in a decentralized manner, is also its weakness in this aspect.

Second, Petraeus must be a diplomat and a military advisor. He must throw a lump of clay onto his potter's wheel and form the base needed for stability in the region for years to come... the next CENTCOM commander and president will hopefully then be able to add a few coils of clay and continue to mold the regional sculpture. One of his first acts as CENTCOM commander should be to petition outgoing President George W. Bush and whoever the incoming president is to make guarantees to the Pakistani government that we will not withdraw prematurely leaving them with the problem of the Taliban. Given that they have an inexperienced president,Asif Ali Zardari, these assurances are needed. Also, it will go a long way towards convincing Army Chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, that, since U.S. premature withdrawal is off the table, he needs to ensure that the ISI shares actionable intelligence on the Taliban to its infantry units and NATO/ISAF, rather than allowing the Taliban to operate in Pakistan for fear of retaliation upon U.S. withdrawal. This will also pave the way for U.S. cross border raids into Pakistani territories to eradicate the Taliban.

Third, Petraeus must also ensure that a farmer subsidy program is begun in Afghanistan by petitioning the defense secretary and president for more money so that the opium eradication is accomplished not by crop spraying, but by paying poor farmers not to grow opium, which funds the Taliban.

Finally, he must ensure that the lights are turned on across the CENTCOM area of responsibilities and that infrastructure is built linking the countries like Iraq and Afghanistan to other countries... a task more easily said than done. These are just a few things that should be on Petraeus' to-do list, but I am confident that he is already tracking.

See also:
Willing To Win in Afghanistan?

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