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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Out of Iraq, Sort Of

It's true that even a January vote to kick out the Americans within a year, by late 2010 instead of late 2011, would cause a mess. (Not least because exiting that fast would be a huge logistical challenge for the U.S.). But even this outcome, my source says, is far from clear-cut. The January elections will likely lead to a new government in Baghdad, possibly even a new prime minister. A vote to cancel the SOFA would likely get caught up in the change of Iraqi leadership, which might simply renegotiate the SOFA struck by their predecessors. The people having spoken, the government might look to move up the U.S. timeline for withdrawal, but probably not dramatically.

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